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Posted:14 Mar 2014
Forecasting Land Use Change and the Impact on Water Yield at Watershed Scale
by : Yusuf Rahadian
Supervised by : Suria Darma Tarigan and Ibnu Sofian
Year : 2013
Sumamry :
The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes from 1991 until 2030 on the water yield quantity in Upper Cisadane Watershed. This study tests a methodology, which involves coupling a land-use change model with a hydrology model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios are developed based on land use demand (population growth) and area restriction (spatial policy). Hydrology components, in case of water yield is simulated using the HEC-HMS model. Result from land use model show that trends of land use changes of the area during 1991 – 2030 depict grassland, settlement and forest area are increasing over time, whereas estate tend to decrease and water remains constant. Based on hydrology model simulation shows increasing of water yield from Year 2010 to Year 2030. The increasing values of water yield influenced by forest rehabilitation activity by the government inside forest area and the development of community forest outside the forest area. Increasing values of water yield are higher for scenario 2 and scenario 4, where government policy about restriction of land use inside forest area applied. That means government policy to prohibit land use conversion inside forest area is appropriate to apply.

Key words: Land Use Change, Land Use Model, Hydrology Model, Water Yield.